Where does the 2021 NFL MVP race stand as we head towards Week 15 of the 2021 NFL season? Let’s break down the current NFL odds for the MVP award as the two stalwarts of Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers appear to be in a two-horse race, while the likes of Kyler Murray and Josh Allen fall back somewhat.

NFL MVP race heading into Week 15

  • -175 | QB Tom Brady 
  • +500 | QB Aaron Rodgers
  • +1200 | QB Kyler Murray
  • +1400 | QB Matthew Stafford
  • +1400 | QB Patrick Mahomes
  • +1400 | QB Dak Prescott
  • +1600 | QB Justin Herbert
  • +2000 | QB Josh Allen
  • +2000 | RB Jonathan Taylor
  • +5000 | WR Cooper Kupp

Tom Brady takes another step closer to his fourth MVP award

As the other contenders seemingly continue to fall around him, the immortal Tom Brady stands tall at the front of the 2021 NFL MVP race. Brady threw for 363 yards with 2 touchdowns, including a walk-off TD to reach 700 total career passing touchdowns. Interestingly, this was Brady’s first in six games where he did not throw an interception.

Brady’s position at the top of the MVP standings is reflected in the way he currently sits atop a number of statistics. He leads the league in pass yards and touchdowns. Additionally, he ranks in the top five in touchdown percentage and passer rating, as well as top 10 in yards per attempt.

However, when you look at PFN’s Offensive Value Metric, Brady is ranked 15th among the QB position when it comes to adding value to his offense. OVM grades players based on metrics within their control. For example, if a QB throws a screen that goes for a 75-yard TD, OVM only grades him on the initial screen pass, not what happens after that.

Brady is surrounded by several talented players and has a well-designed offense to work within. Therefore, he does not have to elevate the offense around him as much as other QBs. That does not mean he does not deserve to potentially be the MVP, but it does suggest his odds are somewhat better than they perhaps should be.

Monday Night Football offered Kyler Murray a huge opportunity in the 2021 NFL MVP race. It was the first of two prime-time opportunities to make his case for the award. Unfortunately, it did not go quite to plan. While Murray threw for 383 yards against the Los Angeles Rams, he also threw 2 costly interceptions.

The first of those came inside the red zone. Arizona had a second-and-4 from the Rams’ 4-yard line while leading 3-0. Murray then tried to squeeze a pass to Zach Ertz in the end zone, only for Aaron Donald to tip the ball and Ernest Jones take it 31 yards the other way. That interception would start a drive that would give the Rams a 7-3 lead.

The second of the 2 interceptions was perhaps the more damning. From his own 25-yard line, once again looking for Ertz, Murray threw an INT to Leonard Floyd. That would set the Rams up at Arizona’s 19-yard line, where they would go on to score a touchdown to lead 27-13.

For all the good Murray did in this game, both passing and with his legs, the abiding memory is the 2 costly interceptions. The first turned a virtually guaranteed 3 points for the Cardinals into a touchdown for the Rams. Meanwhile, the second gave LA the ball in a spot where they were virtually guaranteed to extend their lead to two scores. It is no surprise that Murray’s odds in the 2021 NFL MVP race have lengthened considerably.

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