Middle Tennessee vs. Toledo kicks off the 2021-22 college football bowl season. From a tropical paradise, it’s fitting that the Blue Raiders and Rockets are set to battle it out under the sun in the Bahamas Bowl. MTSU and Toledo are meeting for the first time in history, so who has the edge in this bowl game? Here’s the Bahamas Bowl pick and prediction between Middle Tennessee and Toledo.

Middle Tennessee vs. Toledo betting odds and trends

  • Opening Line: Toledo -10.5 (Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Current Line: Toledo -10
  • Over/Under: 50.5
  • Moneyline: Toledo -400, Middle Tennessee +300

Roadmap for Middle Tennessee to defeat Toledo?

After winning four of five games and three straight to close the year, Toledo enters the Bahamas Bowl on a roll. In fact, Toledo lost four of their five games by a mere 3 points or less this season. So, what’s the way to beat Toledo? Simple: Stop Bryant Koback.

Okay, maybe not so simple as Koback was our MAC Offensive Player of the Year. In each of those four losses, Koback was kept in check one way or another. The roadmap is simple in theory but extremely difficult in practice. Stopping Koback is nearly impossible.

Middle Tennessee vs. Toledo prediction

When it comes down to it, this game will be largely paced by a few players. We all know Koback will be a focal point of Toledo’s offensive attack, as will their quarterback Dequan Finn. Koback finished the year with over 300 receiving yards and nearly 1,300 rushing yards. He scored 18 total touchdowns and is approaching 4,000 career rushing yards.

Finn was the shock of the season, however. The Rockets quarterback ran the ball incredibly well, torching defenses at times. He scored 8 touchdowns on the ground but was even more impressive as a passer. He completed nearly 60% of his throws and had a whopping 16:1 TD:INT ratio.

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It will be vital for the safety duo of Reed Blankenship and Gregory Grate to limit the success of both Koback and Finn. Blankenship and Grate made for one of Conference USA‘s top safety duos in 2021 as Blankenship is headed to the Shrine Bowl in January.

Will the prowess of Blankenship and Grate be enough to stop Finn and Koback? At times, sure, but not for the entire game, as they’ll be able to avoid the safety duo with inside runs and outside throws. MTSU doesn’t quite have the power to keep up with the Rockets in those areas.

Middle Tennessee vs. Toledo Prediction: Toledo 38, Middle Tennessee 20

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